# EMU Counterfactual: Predicted Regime Choice

Logit trained on OECD non-eurozone (post-1999): is_peg = f(Z, controls)

Training sample: N=286, Peg share=0.171

## A. Country-Level Predictions

| Country | Mean P(peg) | % Obs Predicted Peg | Predicted Regime | N |
|:---|---:|---:|:---|---:|
| FIN | 0.515 | 48% | Float | 25 |
| LVA | 0.474 | 40% | Float | 10 |
| DEU | 0.418 | 32% | Float | 25 |
| NLD | 0.410 | 21% | Float | 47 |
| PRT | 0.409 | 32% | Float | 25 |
| ITA | 0.359 | 0% | Float | 25 |
| LTU | 0.348 | 11% | Float | 9 |
| SVN | 0.344 | 6% | Float | 31 |
| EST | 0.339 | 8% | Float | 13 |
| IRL | 0.290 | 36% | Float | 25 |
| GRC | 0.270 | 17% | Float | 23 |
| ESP | 0.266 | 12% | Float | 25 |
| AUT | 0.263 | 0% | Float | 25 |
| MLT | 0.226 | 0% | Float | 16 |
| SVK | 0.205 | 0% | Float | 15 |
| FRA | 0.185 | 0% | Float | 25 |
| BEL | 0.176 | 0% | Float | 25 |
| CYP | 0.104 | 0% | Float | 16 |

**Summary**: 0/18 EMU members predicted to PEG, 18/18 predicted to FLOAT

## B. Over-Time Trend

| Year | Mean P(peg) | % Predicted Peg | N |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1999 | 0.303 | 18% | 11 |
| 2000 | 0.351 | 18% | 11 |
| 2001 | 0.312 | 17% | 12 |
| 2002 | 0.293 | 8% | 12 |
| 2003 | 0.283 | 8% | 12 |
| 2004 | 0.311 | 8% | 12 |
| 2005 | 0.325 | 8% | 12 |
| 2006 | 0.385 | 33% | 12 |
| 2007 | 0.433 | 43% | 14 |
| 2008 | 0.352 | 25% | 16 |
| 2009 | 0.195 | 0% | 17 |
| 2010 | 0.301 | 24% | 17 |
| 2011 | 0.320 | 28% | 18 |
| 2012 | 0.287 | 0% | 18 |
| 2013 | 0.315 | 0% | 18 |
| 2014 | 0.370 | 5% | 19 |
| 2015 | 0.362 | 15% | 20 |
| 2016 | 0.335 | 15% | 20 |
| 2017 | 0.374 | 15% | 20 |
| 2018 | 0.354 | 15% | 20 |
| 2019 | 0.348 | 20% | 20 |
| 2020 | 0.154 | 5% | 20 |
| 2021 | 0.333 | 22% | 18 |
| 2022 | 0.317 | 22% | 18 |
| 2023 | 0.263 | 17% | 18 |

*Logit estimated on OECD non-eurozone sample. Predictions applied to eurozone members using their actual demographics.*